My Writings, Words, and Thoughts
My blog on things not transit related and not technology infused.

Re-reg Keeping Stocks Down on Railroads?

Wednesday, 7 January 2009 22:29 by Adron

Are you kidding me, why would someone even proposing that this would NOT keep the stocks down.  Of course the threat of reregulation is keeping the stocks donw.  The threat of a complete loss of profits, loss of revenue to expand the systems and increase revenue?

Well, Railway Age asked the question, "Is re-reg driving down rail stocks down?".

Sometimes, I'm baffled by the complete disregard of logic, reason, common sense, and the awe inspiring power of stupidity. 

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It Is Time?

Sunday, 19 October 2008 19:42 by Adron

Over the years I've stated time and time again, that the system was going to collapse.  At least the financial system.  The physical system; infrastructure including rails, roads, electricity and all that sort of thing are still about 10-15 years out optimistically and 5-8 years out pessimistically.  Right now though, the United States has the potential for one of the greatest recoveries in history.  It also has the change to fall into complete ruin, and worse case scenario would have us smack in the middle of civil strife.  All of this though dictates one thing, "It is definitely time to INVEST!"  Warren Buffet said it best, and I'm paraphrasing here, "When the market is in fear, buy".  This is really good advice, the crux is, and the beauty of it is, the market will hit several more shocks still before gaining some type of balance.  During that time many investors, the market, will continue to fear.

On another front one has to be very careful not to invest in things that the Government will wreck, nationalize, or ruin.  There are a number of businesses out there like this, hundreds if not thousands, that are great investments but won't be if the Federal Government steps into the market to heavy handed.  Some of the great investment areas are railroads, and other companies that work heavily with commodities.  Commodities are going to be hot ticket items soon, and even with ups and downs, with the prices as they are, they'll be steals and bumped up some kind of crazy in 4-5 years.  In the near term, forget it.  There isn't a thing in the market for the near term schmucks to jump into without exponentially great risk.

On another note, even with my personal motive to buy, buy, buy right now, I do fear the personal liberty I've been losing will drastically increase.  Hopefully I'll be successful and if I do lose liberty, I can buy it back.  I know, that might sound pessimistic, but at this time the only thing that is going to maintain some semblence of liberty over the next 2-3 years is going to be those that are well off.  The middle class and poor are definitely going to get beaten up, especially those that have made stupid decisions about house purchases or even stock investments.  Two things that the middle class and especially the poor - if and when they get into them - rarely do with accuracly or intelligence.  With that said, crime and other petty uncivil things could definitely increase over the next 2-3 years in significant ways.  Desperation breeds bad things.

That's it for projections and such right now.  I'm off to get some food and to figure out what I'm going to invest in.

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Market Up, I'm Not Normal

Friday, 17 October 2008 12:47 by Adron
So we're up +401.35 on the DJIA now.  We've even seen about 4% increases in the other indexes also.  Recovering a little bit of all that magic money wealth.

In other news I've verified I must be a complete freak according to Ellen Goodman's definition of normal.

"Normal is getting dressed in clothes that you buy for work and driving through traffic in a car that you are still paying for - in order to get to the job you need to pay for the clothes and the car, and the house you leave vacant all day so you can afford to live in it.
  - Ellen Goodman"

I knew I didn't fit very well into normal.  I don't even put my pants on one leg at a time - I just jump into those suckers.  I am stuck buying a car, have the payments and all, but tomorrow if I didn't want it I could get rid of it because of were I've chosen to live.  It's all about good decisions, the unfortunate thing is that even the good decisions get punished by all the people making poor decisions.
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$700 Billion Dollar Bailout

Thursday, 2 October 2008 09:39 by Adron

I've reviewed a little of the bailout, of course, I do agree with one single part of the whole package.  Most politicians have said, "this is only the beginning".  Yeah, it absolutely is.  There are also some fallacies I've noticed already, with the bill just barely out of the gates.

  1. The bailout isn't so much a bailout as a whole host of things.  Most of it is nothing more than stop gap band aid fixes to much larger problems.
  2. The bailout isn't going to help people foreclosing or in any type of financial ruin for months.

There are some major consequences that are lining up to happen pending we just keep towing the stupid currency as is.  I do understand that it is almost impossible to change our mechanisms for leveraging our fiat currency without assuring a major collapse.  With the Government in so many corners of the economy, with so much interconnected that it can't even keep up with, there is no hope of an easy fix by returning to a good money policy.  We're debt  based, and considering the median American is in debt 2x their annual salary by the Government, about 10k in credit card debt, and probably sitting on an average of 10-20k of college debt, forget it.  There is no real way right now without massive write downs to return to an honest savings based money scheme.

The one stop gap solution that the bailout it supposed to provide might be somewhat successful.  Kind of like the bum on the street asking for change.  The bailout is going to in the end, expedite the depreciation of our currency so that even the bum on the street doesn't want the change anymore.  So just to list the possible successes:

  1. It might curve bank failures to some degree and it would save a few people from ruin.

No lets cover the negative things that could start occurring very soon now.

  1. It will encourage some, even though it is probably the worse time to do so, to get loans they can't afford.
  2. It will encourage a continued debt based lifestyle by extending a little bit of easy money out further and enable people to keep digging the hole we're in.
  3. Many rich people, will figure out a way to abuse it, and abuse it.  It is after all, written by a bunch of politicians - they're not known for being able to write legislation or think about a real solution to a problem.  They band aid station attendants, not doctors.
  4. It will make it harder for the banks that do survive, to be competitive, forcing them to lower their prices or make other unwise decisions to encourage further bad market behavior by citizens of the nation.  Basically lining us up for a repeat of what is occurring now.

The real shame, is so many stuck they're heads in the sand for so long, ignoring the likes of Ron Paul as a crack pot.  Now America realizes, as it should, that he was right.  He didn't know the dates, he wasn't making bets, but he knew a collapse was coming because of bad money policy.  People stated in the 30s very intelligently why the changes weren't going to work.  Why handing out easy money for houses wasn't going to help.  The MARKET provided these things to those who could afford them.  Giving away houses at rates that shouldn't be provided, via indirect coercion didn't help the situation.  Now, we have the mess we're sitting in.  The socialist policies didn't help in the great depression of 29-39 and they won't help now, especially in the long run.

Overall I'm rather bummed about the situation, but I can't say I didn't know it was coming, because I definitely did.  Labeled the economist nut, the negative, the pessimist, and all sorts of other things, but I know what I know and can't simply ignore the reality.

Over the next few months I'm sure, along with millions of others, I hope to see some avenues of getting through this debacle.  I just hope the other end doesn't include jack boot thugs, me having to leave the city, or any of those civil conflicts.  The last one wasn't kind to this country.

Americans don't know their own history, I suppose we're destined to repeat our mistakes.

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A Quick History of Major Financial Storms - Part 1

Wednesday, 1 October 2008 00:43 by Adron

Panic of 1873-1879


Lead Up
The Black Friday panic was caused by the attempt of Jay Gould and Jim Fisk to corner the gold market in 1869. They were prevented from doing so by the decision of the administration of President Ulysses S. Grant to release government gold for sale. The drive culminated in a day of panic when thousands were ruined - Friday, September 24, 1869, popularly called Black Friday.

The
Coinage Act of 1873 changed the United States policy with respect to silver. Before the Act, the United States had backed its currency with both gold and silver, and it minted both types of coins. The Act moved the United States to the gold standard, which meant it would no longer buy silver or mint silver coins.

In September 1873, Jay Cooke & Company, a major component of the country’s banking establishment, found itself unable to market several million dollars in Northern Pacific Railway bonds. Cooke's firm, like many others, was invested heavily in the railroads. At a time when investment banks were anxious for more capital for their enterprises,
President Ulysses S. Grant's monetary policy of contracting the money supply made matters worse. While businesses were expanding, the money they needed to finance that growth was becoming more scarce.

Cooke and other entrepreneurs had planned to build the nation's second transcontinental railroad, called the Northern Pacific Railway. Cooke's firm provided the financing, and ground was broken for the line on February 15, 1870. But just as Cooke was about to receive a $300 million government loan in September 1873, false reports circulated that his firm's credit had become nearly worthless. On September 18, the firm declared bankruptcy.


Problem
In Vienna and Berlin, Paris and London, St. Petersburg and New York, the business cycle had run its course. The failure of the Jay Cooke bank, followed quickly by that of Henry Clews, set off a chain reaction of bank failures and temporarily closed the New York stock market. Factories began to lay off workers as the United States slipped into depression. The effects of the panic were quickly felt in New York, more slowly in Chicago, Virginia City and San Francisco.

The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days starting September 20. Of the country's 364 railroads, 89 went bankrupt. A total of 18,000 businesses failed between 1873 and 1875. Unemployment reached 14% by 1876, during a time which became known as the Long Depression. Construction work lagged, wages were cut, real estate values fell and corporate profits vanished.


Resolution
This financial panic resolved itself after 6 years.  Wages dropped, but prices did more during this period also creating continued efficiencies in the overall economy.  Unemployment reached 14%.  No reserve, no federal bail out.

Panic of 1907


Lead Up
The crisis occurred after an attempt by Otto Heinze to corner the market in United Copper, a company that had collapsed that October. When the bid failed, banks that had loaned money for the scheme experienced a number of runs which in time spread to affiliated banks and trusts, leading a week later to the downfall of the Knickerbocker Trust Company. With the collapse of New York's third largest trust company fear spread throughout the city's trusts and across the country as regional banks pulled deposits from New York and as nationwide people withdrew deposits from their regional banks.

Problem
The Panic of 1907, also known as the 1907 Bankers' Panic, was a financial crisis which occurred in the United States when the stock market fell close to 50% from its peak in the previous year. At the time the economy was in recession and there were numerous runs on banks and trust companies. The panic's primary cause was a retraction of loans by a number of banks in New York City, and the sentiment quickly spread across the nation leading to the closures of both state and local banks and businesses.

Resolution
The panic may have been worse if not for the intervention of J.P. Morgan, who convinced other bankers in the city to provide a backstop for the crisis.

This financial panic resolved itself after a short period, about a month.  Wages and prices did not fluctuate drastically.  Unemployment did not get out of control.  No reserve, no federal bail out.

Depression 1929-1939


Lead Up

The Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914, (October 15, 1914, ch. 323, 38 Stat. 730, codified at 15 U.S.C. § 12–27, 29 U.S.C. § 52–53), was enacted in the United States to add further substance to the U.S. antitrust law regime by seeking to prevent anticompetitive practices in their incipiency. That regime started with the Sherman Antitrust Act of 1890, the first Federal law outlawing practices considered harmful to consumers (monopolies and cartels). The Clayton act specified particular prohibited conduct, the three-level enforcement scheme, exemptions, and remedial measures.  This act is what actually gave the Sherman Act actual capability to act upon.  Before the Sherman Act was so vague that much legal discourse over how to actually take action limited its usefulness

Federal Reserve Created.  Created in 1913 by the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, it is a quasi-public (government entity with private components) banking system composed of the presidentially appointed Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C.

...this enabled one of the major causes...
Debt - A major problem with our current economy - is seen as one of the causes of the Great Depression, particularly in the United States. Macroeconomists including Ben Bernanke, the current chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank, have revived the debt-deflation view[citation needed] of the Great Depression originated by Arthur Cecil Pigou and Irving Fisher:[citation needed] in the 1920s, American consumers and businesses relied on cheap credit, the former to purchase consumer goods such as automobiles and furniture, and the latter for capital investment to increase production. This fueled strong short-term growth but created consumer and commercial debt.

Problem
The Great Depression was a worldwide economic downturn starting in most places in 1929 and ending at different times in the 1930s or early 1940s for different countries. It was the largest and most important economic depression in modern history, and is used in the 21st century as a benchmark on how far the world's economy can fall.

Extending the Problem
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (sometimes known as the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act) was an act signed into law on June 17, 1930, that raised U.S. tariffs on over 20,000 imported goods to record levels. In the United States 1,028 economists signed a petition against this legislation, and after it was passed, many countries retaliated with their own increased tariffs on U.S. goods, and American exports and imports plunged by more than half. In the opinion of most economists, the Smoot-Hawley act was partially responsible for the severity of the Great Depression.  Once again, another bad example of Government intrusion doing more harm than good.

Short Summary:

In all these cases, the most severe of financial issues occurred, and took longest to recover, when there was much more extensive Government involvement from the Federal Reserve, to the Anti-Trust Acts, to the reinforcement of those, to price controls.  In the most severe economic failure listed a distinct and large involvement by the Federal Government could easily be pointed to as part of the problem, if not at least extending the problem further along than otherwise would have occurred.

Government oversight is ok sometimes, but rarely does it truly help the situation.  I fear we might be heading that same direction with the bail out being pushed for today.  I fear we haven't really learned from the past and are ill-prepared to face this problem now.

Ben Benanke, being no idiot, but also not having much to work with is definitely in a tight position.  The Republican and Democratic leaders of the nation are also just spinning their wheels figuring out how to add more oversight, more regulation, and even more Govenrment beauracracy to the whole problem.  Adding band aids, is not going to stop a major arterial from bleeding out.  In the end, band aids still leave us dead.

I'd prefer the economy come alive again, do we have any leaders, who would possibly get a clue about what to do?  It doesn't appear so at this juncture, but I haven't written the country off yet.

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Is It Really Complicated?

Tuesday, 30 September 2008 17:17 by Adron

Sound money.  $1 buck plus another $1 is $2 dollars.  If you have $2 dollars you have more than if you have $1 dollar and can of course purchase more things with that $2 dollars.

If someone then wants to borrow 50 cents from you, from your $2 dollars, you'll end up with $1.50.  Say you loan them that 50 cents, and they offer to pay you back the next day at 75 cents.  You'll then have $2.75 pending you don't spend any of that money today.

Now say you loaned out that 50 cents, and then another friend comes and loans another $1.40 from you.  They tell you they'll give you $3.00 bucks tomorrow.  You loan it to them, but know they'll probably not pay until a week or more, not the next day.  You're left with 10 cents.  5% liquid assets at that point with the prospect of having a payout around the end of the week of $3.75 cents.  Just shy of the $2.00 dollars you started with.

But now you remember you borrowed a quarter form a friend yesterday and he's now approaching you.  That friend wants his 25 cents, he's got some bubble gum to buy and he's not waiting.  You're over leveraged and now stuck letting your friend down, he won't be able to get his bubble gum.

You break to him the news, you only have 10 cents.  So he then demands his 10 cents.  He doesn't mind that you don't have the full amount, he figures he'll just take that out now and retrieve the rest later.  No need to have anymore money deposited in the account than he needs right?  Why prop you up because you've loaned all your money out and are left with little liquidity.  Well he takes his 10 cents and you're now out of money.  You've got nothing.

Another friend then approaches you and wants to borrow 50 cents since he let you borrow 50 cents a few days ago.  Well, you tell him you don't have it but he could borrow it from your other friend that borrowed some money from you.  He says okay.

So now we have a web of loans, no liquidity, and people owing you money, with no tangible prospect of paying up.  The metaphor isn't exact, but it really is that simple.  This is how the United States of America's Financial System has screwed itself, and us, the citizens of the nation.

How do we fix it?  Well long term we make sure those kids of our nation don't go loaning out everything they have.  The first kid that gets lashes - the United States Government for going around and requesting all the kids loan out all their money, so everyone can have their bubble gum immediately.

We also can't control the friends of the kids.  We can't do this, but we can setup the monetary system so that it doesn't provide over extension like this.  Property laws should dictate how these things go, and shouldn't let people default so easily.  There is structure that has existed before, most based on simple common sense, that should be put in place.  No need to heavily regulate, create new committees and boards that won't do anything useful, no need for continued nonsense!  Just make sure that people are held accountable for what they do and the mess will clean itself up.

Bail em' out, and we've just prepped ourselves for the next utter catastrophe.

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Blogs I Need To Add to My Blogroll

Tuesday, 30 September 2008 15:39 by Adron

I've decided I definitely need to get back in touch, more intensely with the business community of this country.  On that note I went digging through some blogs and other such things I used to read on a regular basis.

http://aldoushuxley.livejournal.com/

http://www.blogginwallstreet.com/

...and blogs I need or ought to start reading.

http://bigpaperblog.com/

http://stephenvita.typepad.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/

http://billburnham.blogs.com/

On another note, here are a few great articles that I really should write up some commentary on.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9599

http://www.thisamericanlife.org/Radio_Episode.aspx?sched=1242

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=9663

http://bigpaperblog.com/

http://www.newsbusters.org/blogs/ken-shepherd/2008/09/24/times-sullivan-sees-another-free-market-failure-campaign-advertising

http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2008/09/17/reforming-the-patent-system?tid=true

...and sites...

http://mises.org/

That's enough for now to get one going and waste days of time.

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